Type: Article
Title: Constructing an Urban Microsimulation Model to Assess the Influence of Demographics on Heat Consumption
Authors: Muñoz Hildago, Marcelo Esteban
Peters, Irene 
Issue Date: 30-Apr-2014
Keywords: Heat consumption; digital cadaster; building stock; spatial microsimulation; combinatorial optimization
Abstract: 
We present ongoing work on the construction of a spatial microsimulation model to assess the influence of demographics on residential heat consumption for Hamburg, Germany. Demographics are important for urban energy planning as: (1) Buildings are becoming more energy-efficient and building occupant behaviour accounts for a growing share in the variation of consumption; (2) building occupant needs are changing along with demographic change; and (3) the share of small decentralized district heating grids, in which fewer customers mean less averaging out of heterogeneous occupant profiles, is set to play a bigger role in the country’s heat supply. We construct a spatial microdata set for the city of Hamburg (of roughly 1.8 million inhabitants and 370 000 buildings), with households populating geo-referenced buildings, in three steps: (a) Synthesizing the population of small scale “statistical areas”, comprising up to around 2000 people (we do this by selecting households recorded in the German microcensus and fitting them into the statistical areas); (b) assigning energy relevant properties to the geo-referenced buildings from the Hamburg digital cadaster (we do this by making use of a well-established building typology developed for energy assessment) and constructing dwelling units in these buildings; and (c) matching households to the dwelling units in these buildings (which we do again by using household data from the microcensus). This last step – allocating households to buildings – may be the most interesting and challenging task. As of to date, we use a combinatorial optimization algorithm to achieve this. Once we have a microsimulation model of buildings and households living in them, including their demographic composition, the range of questions that can be explored is immense. The illustration presented here is a simple heat balance computation of individual buildings, using the constructed socio-demographic data and the digital cadaster data as input parameters.
Subject Class (DDC): 624: Ingenieurbau und Umwelttechnik
HCU-Faculty: Infrastrukturplanung und Stadttechnik 
Journal or Series Name: International Journal of Microsimulation 
Volume: 7
Issue: 1
Start page: 127
End page: 157
Publisher: International Microsimulation Association
ISSN: 1747-5864
Publisher DOI: 10.34196/ijm.00096
URN (Citation Link): urn:nbn:de:gbv:1373-repos-9624
Directlink: https://repos.hcu-hamburg.de/handle/hcu/755
Language: English
Creative Commons License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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